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NFL · Sun, Sep 27, 2026
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Final score: Los Angeles Chargers 16 · 24 Buffalo Bills. 43 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.27 | +75.2% | 6 | LOSS |
| Ladd McConkey | Los Angeles Chargers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 2.16 | +72.4% | 4 | WIN |
| Dawson Knox | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.25 | +69.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| DJ Moore | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | under | 49.5 | 1.91 | +59.7% | 67 | LOSS |
| DJ Moore | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | under | 50.5 | 1.88 | +59.3% | 67 | LOSS |
| DJ Moore | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | under | 47.5 | 1.90 | +56.6% | 67 | LOSS |
| Ladd McConkey | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | under | 60.5 | 1.88 | +48.9% | 66 | LOSS |
| Ladd McConkey | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | under | 58.5 | 1.91 | +47.4% | 66 | LOSS |
| Omarion Hampton | Los Angeles Chargers | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.68 | +41.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ladd McConkey | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | under | 56.5 | 1.88 | +37.7% | 66 | LOSS |
| Quentin Johnston | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | under | 38.5 | 1.91 | +37.2% | 40 | LOSS |
| Dawson Knox | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | over | 9.5 | 1.90 | +36.8% | 5 | LOSS |
| Ladd McConkey | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | under | 55.5 | 1.88 | +35.5% | 66 | LOSS |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.27 | +32.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Quentin Johnston | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | under | 35.5 | 1.92 | +31.7% | 40 | LOSS |
| Quentin Johnston | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | under | 36.5 | 1.88 | +29.3% | 40 | LOSS |
| Ladd McConkey | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | under | 51.5 | 1.91 | +28.5% | 66 | LOSS |
| Dalton Kincaid | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.82 | +25.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Keaton Mitchell | Los Angeles Chargers | Rushing Yards | over | 13.5 | 1.85 | +23.0% | 52 | WIN |
| Dalton Kincaid | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | under | 58.5 | 1.90 | +22.5% | 38 | WIN |
| Quentin Johnston | Los Angeles Chargers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.36 | +22.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Dalton Kincaid | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | under | 56.5 | 1.91 | +21.7% | 38 | WIN |
| Dalton Kincaid | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | under | 57.5 | 1.91 | +21.3% | 38 | WIN |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | Rushing Yards | over | 19.5 | 1.91 | +21.0% | 17 | LOSS |
| Keaton Mitchell | Los Angeles Chargers | Rushing Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.94 | +20.5% | 52 | WIN |
| Omarion Hampton | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | over | 10.5 | 1.92 | +17.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Quentin Johnston | Los Angeles Chargers | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.65 | +17.7% | 3 | WIN |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | Passing Yards | under | 228.5 | 1.89 | +15.7% | 226 | WIN |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | Passing Yards | under | 226.5 | 1.90 | +14.1% | 226 | WIN |
| Omarion Hampton | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | over | 12.5 | 1.94 | +13.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Omarion Hampton | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | over | 11.5 | 1.87 | +13.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Rushing Yards | under | 36.5 | 1.86 | +10.8% | 22 | WIN |
| Khalil Shakir | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | under | 42.5 | 1.88 | +8.8% | 6 | WIN |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Rushing Yards | under | 35.5 | 1.87 | +8.3% | 22 | WIN |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Rushing Yards | under | 34.5 | 1.90 | +6.9% | 22 | WIN |
| Khalil Shakir | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | under | 39.5 | 1.91 | +5.5% | 6 | WIN |
| Khalil Shakir | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.67 | +5.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.58 | +4.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Omarion Hampton | Los Angeles Chargers | Rushing Yards | over | 59.5 | 1.91 | +4.2% | 56 | LOSS |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | Passing Yards | under | 225.5 | 1.88 | +2.6% | 226 | LOSS |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Passing Yards | over | 239.5 | 1.88 | +2.2% | 204 | LOSS |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | Passing Yards | under | 224.5 | 1.88 | +1.5% | 226 | LOSS |
| Omarion Hampton | Los Angeles Chargers | Rushing Yards | over | 61.5 | 1.92 | +0.1% | 56 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Buffalo Bills or Los Angeles Chargers that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 10, 2026 | Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings | 25 | 84.0% | View → |
| Sun, Nov 8, 2026 | Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers | 26 | 53.8% | View → |
| Sun, Nov 1, 2026 | Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills | 46 | 52.2% | View → |
| Sun, Nov 1, 2026 | Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams | 32 | 56.2% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs | 36 | 55.6% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders | 30 | 60.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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