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NFL · Sun, Oct 18, 2026
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
Final score: Buffalo Bills 33 · 30 Las Vegas Raiders. 30 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | away | 5.5 | 1.91 | +8.9% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody White | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 12.5 | 1.91 | +52.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Dawson Knox | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.12 | +45.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Keon Coleman | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | under | 35.5 | 1.88 | +39.6% | 59 | LOSS |
| Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | Passing Yards | under | 250.5 | 1.88 | +37.1% | 313 | LOSS |
| Jalen Nailor | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.57 | +36.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Cody White | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.59 | +34.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Jalen Nailor | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 21.5 | 1.93 | +32.9% | 9 | WIN |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.08 | +29.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| Dalton Kincaid | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.64 | +29.4% | 7 | LOSS |
| Brock Bowers | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 79.5 | 1.90 | +29.2% | 70 | WIN |
| Mike Washington Jr. | Las Vegas Raiders | Rushing Yards | over | 13.5 | 1.85 | +27.2% | 43 | WIN |
| Dalton Kincaid | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | under | 50.5 | 1.89 | +19.1% | 38 | WIN |
| Tre Tucker | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.99 | +18.5% | 5 | LOSS |
| Keon Coleman | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.13 | +17.9% | 4 | LOSS |
| Ty Johnson | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.50 | +16.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| Dawson Knox | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | over | 10.5 | 1.87 | +14.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | Rushing Yards | under | 1.5 | 1.89 | +14.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Ashton Jeanty | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.88 | +12.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Ray Davis | Buffalo Bills | Rushing Yards | under | 10.5 | 1.86 | +11.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Brock Bowers | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 1.97 | +10.8% | 4 | WIN |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Rushing Yards | under | 32.5 | 1.92 | +10.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Ashton Jeanty | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | over | 26.5 | 1.93 | +8.4% | 36 | WIN |
| Ty Johnson | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | over | 15.5 | 1.85 | +7.3% | 24 | WIN |
| Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.16 | +7.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Ashton Jeanty | Las Vegas Raiders | Rushing Yards | under | 54.5 | 1.92 | +6.7% | 22 | WIN |
| Michael Mayer | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 26.5 | 1.88 | +4.1% | 95 | LOSS |
| Michael Mayer | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 1.57 | +3.2% | 7 | WIN |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Passing Yards | over | 239.5 | 1.88 | +1.6% | 255 | WIN |
| Tre Tucker | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | over | 39.5 | 1.92 | +0.2% | 97 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Las Vegas Raiders or Buffalo Bills that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 13, 2026 | Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams | 27 | 59.3% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots | 38 | 44.7% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | 23 | 34.8% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | 41 | 70.7% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints | 38 | 71.1% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills | 43 | 41.9% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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