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NFL · Sun, Oct 18, 2026
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Final score: Los Angeles Chargers 6 · 22 Kansas City Chiefs. 36 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 4.30 | +29.0% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | Los Angeles Chargers | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.53 | +89.7% | 4 | WIN |
| Jalen Royals | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 25.5 | 1.89 | +87.1% | 24 | WIN |
| Charlie Kolar | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | under | 21.5 | 1.88 | +77.9% | 20 | WIN |
| Jalen Royals | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.68 | +65.6% | 2 | WIN |
| Charlie Kolar | Los Angeles Chargers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.69 | +60.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| Xavier Worthy | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 48.5 | 1.89 | +50.8% | 73 | LOSS |
| Omarion Hampton | Los Angeles Chargers | Rushing Yards | over | 31.5 | 1.87 | +48.5% | 18 | LOSS |
| Xavier Worthy | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.78 | +47.6% | 7 | LOSS |
| Keaton Mitchell | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | under | 15.5 | 1.93 | +47.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Emmett Johnson | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | over | 7.5 | 1.91 | +47.1% | 18 | WIN |
| Kimani Vidal | Los Angeles Chargers | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.81 | +43.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Emmett Johnson | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.93 | +36.7% | 6 | LOSS |
| Emmett Johnson | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.39 | +35.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Noah Gray | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 14.5 | 1.90 | +32.6% | 53 | LOSS |
| Kimani Vidal | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | under | 9.5 | 1.83 | +32.6% | 19 | LOSS |
| Keaton Mitchell | Los Angeles Chargers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.60 | +31.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Passing Yards | over | 223.5 | 1.89 | +28.3% | 272 | WIN |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | under | 90.5 | 1.90 | +27.1% | 128 | LOSS |
| Ladd McConkey | Los Angeles Chargers | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.85 | +23.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.70 | +22.6% | 2 | WIN |
| Cyrus Allen | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.71 | +21.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| Travis Kelce | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 53.5 | 1.91 | +18.3% | 53 | WIN |
| Noah Gray | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.89 | +16.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| Kimani Vidal | Los Angeles Chargers | Rushing Yards | over | 17.5 | 1.94 | +14.6% | 21 | WIN |
| Omarion Hampton | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | over | 6.5 | 1.94 | +12.3% | 21 | WIN |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | Rushing Yards | over | 24.5 | 1.91 | +11.3% | 26 | WIN |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | over | 16.5 | 1.92 | +11.0% | 16 | LOSS |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | Passing Yards | over | 195.5 | 1.90 | +11.0% | 204 | WIN |
| Keaton Mitchell | Los Angeles Chargers | Rushing Yards | over | 18.5 | 1.85 | +10.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 22.5 | 1.88 | +9.1% | 11 | WIN |
| Travis Kelce | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.88 | +9.1% | 4 | WIN |
| Quentin Johnston | Los Angeles Chargers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.98 | +7.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Ladd McConkey | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | under | 40.5 | 1.91 | +4.5% | 17 | WIN |
| Quentin Johnston | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | under | 35.5 | 1.88 | +3.5% | 57 | LOSS |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | Passing TDs | over | 0.5 | 1.47 | +0.6% | 0 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Kansas City Chiefs or Los Angeles Chargers that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers | 18 | 55.6% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | 23 | 34.8% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | 27 | 46.2% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins | 41 | 39.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills | 43 | 41.9% | View → |
| Tue, Sep 15, 2026 | Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs | 27 | 48.1% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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