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NFL · Tue, Oct 20, 2026
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
Final score: Washington Commanders 17 · 23 San Francisco 49ers. 24 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 4.50 | +35.0% | LOSS |
| Spread | home | -7.5 | 1.91 | +12.9% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | Washington Commanders | Rushing Yards | under | 47.5 | 1.88 | +59.8% | 27 | WIN |
| Mike Evans | San Francisco 49ers | Receiving Yards | under | 70.5 | 1.89 | +39.3% | 94 | LOSS |
| Mike Evans | San Francisco 49ers | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.81 | +37.7% | 3 | WIN |
| Antonio Williams | Washington Commanders | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.29 | +35.0% | 3 | WIN |
| Terry McLaurin | Washington Commanders | Receiving Yards | over | 46.5 | 1.88 | +31.8% | 27 | LOSS |
| Rachaad White | Washington Commanders | Receiving Yards | under | 12.5 | 1.92 | +30.6% | 30 | LOSS |
| Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | Passing Yards | under | 249.5 | 1.88 | +28.5% | 264 | LOSS |
| Austin Ekeler | Washington Commanders | Rushing Yards | over | 19.5 | 1.93 | +27.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders | Passing Yards | under | 207.5 | 1.88 | +24.9% | 300 | LOSS |
| Antonio Williams | Washington Commanders | Receiving Yards | over | 20.5 | 1.91 | +21.6% | 50 | WIN |
| Chig Okonkwo | Washington Commanders | Receiving Yards | over | 24.5 | 1.86 | +21.0% | 69 | WIN |
| Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.70 | +18.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| Rachaad White | Washington Commanders | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.71 | +15.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers | Receiving Yards | under | 39.5 | 1.88 | +15.6% | 53 | LOSS |
| Stefon Diggs | Washington Commanders | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.60 | +13.7% | 6 | WIN |
| Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders | Rushing Yards | over | 39.5 | 1.92 | +11.5% | 10 | LOSS |
| Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers | Rushing Yards | over | 61.5 | 1.90 | +9.1% | 64 | WIN |
| Stefon Diggs | Washington Commanders | Receiving Yards | over | 39.5 | 1.88 | +4.8% | 44 | WIN |
| Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | Rushing Yards | over | 18.5 | 1.86 | +4.7% | 28 | WIN |
| George Kittle | San Francisco 49ers | Receiving Yards | over | 65.5 | 1.88 | +4.4% | 69 | WIN |
| Chig Okonkwo | Washington Commanders | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 1.64 | +1.1% | 7 | WIN |
| George Kittle | San Francisco 49ers | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.83 | +0.4% | 5 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving San Francisco 49ers or Washington Commanders that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | New York Giants at Washington Commanders | 39 | 36.8% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks | 22 | 50.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders | 42 | 64.3% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | 25 | 56.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders | 31 | 77.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers | 38 | 78.9% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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