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NFL · Fri, Oct 23, 2026
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Final score: New England Patriots 24 · 30 Chicago Bears. 41 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.30 | +11.6% | LOSS |
| Spread | away | -3 | 1.85 | +7.6% | LOSS |
| Game Total | under | 50.5 | 1.95 | +4.5% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roschon Johnson | Chicago Bears | Rushing Yards | under | 26.5 | 1.88 | +82.7% | 13 | WIN |
| TreVeyon Henderson | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | over | 25.5 | 1.93 | +57.4% | 9 | LOSS |
| Efton Chism III | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 18.5 | 1.88 | +56.4% | 16 | WIN |
| Efton Chism III | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.03 | +55.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Cole Kmet | Chicago Bears | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.68 | +48.5% | 3 | WIN |
| Roschon Johnson | Chicago Bears | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.64 | +40.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Eli Raridon | New England Patriots | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.16 | +39.4% | 3 | WIN |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.76 | +38.6% | 3 | WIN |
| Roschon Johnson | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 7.5 | 1.87 | +32.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | under | 31.5 | 1.88 | +31.2% | 26 | WIN |
| D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.93 | +26.9% | 4 | LOSS |
| TreVeyon Henderson | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 3.5 | 1.84 | +24.9% | 14 | WIN |
| A.J. Brown | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 72.5 | 1.90 | +22.3% | 48 | WIN |
| Cole Kmet | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | over | 9.5 | 1.93 | +21.2% | 28 | WIN |
| Colston Loveland | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 45.5 | 1.89 | +21.0% | 69 | LOSS |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 35.5 | 1.92 | +20.0% | 71 | WIN |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 38.5 | 1.90 | +18.6% | 23 | WIN |
| Caleb Williams | Chicago Bears | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.18 | +18.3% | 2 | LOSS |
| D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 18.5 | 1.86 | +16.3% | 12 | WIN |
| TreVeyon Henderson | New England Patriots | Receptions | over | 0.5 | 1.51 | +13.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Eli Raridon | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.90 | +12.5% | 56 | WIN |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.98 | +11.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.29 | +9.6% | 7 | WIN |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 18.5 | 1.93 | +9.2% | 93 | WIN |
| Caleb Williams | Chicago Bears | Rushing Yards | under | 21.5 | 1.88 | +8.2% | 18 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing Yards | over | 249.5 | 1.88 | +8.0% | 321 | WIN |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | over | 42.5 | 1.92 | +7.7% | 22 | LOSS |
| Kyle Williams | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.52 | +7.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Kalif Raymond | Chicago Bears | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 1.85 | +3.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kalif Raymond | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | over | 25.5 | 1.90 | +3.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Corey Kiner | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | under | 13.5 | 1.93 | +2.6% | 13 | WIN |
| Caleb Williams | Chicago Bears | Passing Yards | under | 245.5 | 1.89 | +2.0% | 308 | LOSS |
| Rome Odunze | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 44.5 | 1.91 | +1.8% | 69 | LOSS |
| Luther Burden III | Chicago Bears | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 2.01 | +1.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Rome Odunze | Chicago Bears | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.64 | +0.9% | 4 | LOSS |
| D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | Rushing Yards | under | 60.5 | 1.90 | +0.9% | 78 | LOSS |
| Kyle Williams | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 19.5 | 1.92 | +0.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Luther Burden III | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 58.5 | 1.88 | +0.1% | 130 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Chicago Bears or New England Patriots that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons | 37 | 40.5% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | New York Jets at New England Patriots | 34 | 50.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers | 44 | 36.4% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots | 38 | 44.7% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | New York Jets at Chicago Bears | 35 | 71.4% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | 41 | 70.7% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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