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NFL · Sun, Oct 18, 2026
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Final score: New York Jets 19 · 26 New England Patriots. 34 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 3.85 | +15.5% | LOSS |
| Spread | home | -7.5 | 1.95 | +15.0% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braelon Allen | New York Jets | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.05 | +88.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Braelon Allen | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 14.5 | 1.93 | +81.6% | 26 | LOSS |
| Braelon Allen | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | under | 66.5 | 1.90 | +74.1% | 78 | LOSS |
| Braelon Allen | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | under | 65.5 | 1.90 | +73.1% | 78 | LOSS |
| Eli Raridon | New England Patriots | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.23 | +54.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| TreVeyon Henderson | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | over | 32.5 | 1.91 | +48.5% | 31 | LOSS |
| Eli Raridon | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 12.5 | 1.90 | +38.3% | 11 | LOSS |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 26.5 | 1.89 | +37.5% | 48 | WIN |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 30.5 | 1.88 | +27.8% | 48 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing Yards | over | 237.5 | 1.89 | +26.8% | 235 | LOSS |
| Garrett Wilson | New York Jets | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 1.88 | +26.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing Yards | over | 238.5 | 1.90 | +26.5% | 235 | LOSS |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 20.5 | 1.87 | +24.9% | 86 | WIN |
| Kenyon Sadiq | New York Jets | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.23 | +24.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Mason Taylor | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 13.5 | 1.88 | +23.8% | 33 | WIN |
| Mason Taylor | New York Jets | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.66 | +22.8% | 4 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | under | 28.5 | 1.87 | +21.7% | 24 | WIN |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 1.76 | +20.8% | 4 | WIN |
| TreVeyon Henderson | New England Patriots | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.79 | +15.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.57 | +15.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | under | 26.5 | 1.87 | +13.3% | 24 | WIN |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 2.81 | +13.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | under | 53.5 | 1.90 | +11.3% | 36 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.24 | +11.0% | 3 | LOSS |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Passing Yards | under | 215.5 | 1.89 | +10.4% | 252 | LOSS |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.32 | +9.4% | 4 | WIN |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Passing Yards | under | 214.5 | 1.89 | +9.3% | 252 | LOSS |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | under | 8.5 | 1.91 | +8.2% | 0 | WIN |
| TreVeyon Henderson | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 5.5 | 1.91 | +8.0% | 9 | WIN |
| Romeo Doubs | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 31.5 | 1.91 | +7.0% | 42 | WIN |
| Isaiah Davis | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | over | 5.5 | 1.88 | +6.1% | 16 | WIN |
| Kenyon Sadiq | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 19.5 | 1.88 | +2.3% | 12 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving New England Patriots or New York Jets that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Cleveland Browns at New York Jets | 42 | 66.7% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots | 38 | 44.7% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | New York Jets at Chicago Bears | 35 | 71.4% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | 41 | 70.7% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | New York Jets at Detroit Lions | 52 | 51.9% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars | 59 | 52.5% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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