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NFL · Sun, Oct 18, 2026
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Final score: Chicago Bears 31 · 23 Atlanta Falcons. 37 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 52.5 | 1.98 | +6.2% | LOSS |
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 1.87 | +0.8% | WIN |
| Spread | away | 1.5 | 2.00 | +0.4% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roschon Johnson | Chicago Bears | Rushing Yards | under | 20.5 | 1.92 | +90.1% | 51 | LOSS |
| Zachariah Branch | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.36 | +50.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.00 | +47.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| Jahan Dotson | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.39 | +42.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Jahan Dotson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | under | 23.5 | 1.89 | +36.1% | 87 | LOSS |
| Cole Kmet | Chicago Bears | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.47 | +36.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Zachariah Branch | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 12.5 | 1.93 | +33.6% | 9 | LOSS |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | under | 34.5 | 1.92 | +31.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Luther Burden III | Chicago Bears | Rushing Yards | under | 5.5 | 1.93 | +31.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Roschon Johnson | Chicago Bears | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.46 | +30.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.84 | +28.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| Cole Kmet | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | over | 8.5 | 1.90 | +27.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| Roschon Johnson | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 5.5 | 1.85 | +25.9% | 34 | LOSS |
| Caleb Williams | Chicago Bears | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.36 | +23.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 1.79 | +23.9% | 4 | WIN |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | over | 2.5 | 1.88 | +21.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Kalif Raymond | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | over | 26.5 | 1.89 | +20.5% | 18 | LOSS |
| Kalif Raymond | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | over | 27.5 | 1.91 | +19.4% | 18 | LOSS |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Passing Yards | under | 241.5 | 1.88 | +17.3% | 225 | WIN |
| Colston Loveland | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 39.5 | 1.88 | +16.7% | 65 | LOSS |
| D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | Rushing Yards | under | 66.5 | 1.91 | +15.1% | 44 | WIN |
| Colston Loveland | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 38.5 | 1.88 | +14.1% | 65 | LOSS |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Passing Yards | under | 237.5 | 1.89 | +13.0% | 225 | WIN |
| D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | Rushing Yards | under | 65.5 | 1.91 | +12.8% | 44 | WIN |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.87 | +11.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 16.5 | 1.87 | +9.8% | 26 | LOSS |
| D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 15.5 | 1.93 | +8.6% | 26 | LOSS |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | under | 94.5 | 1.88 | +7.6% | 61 | WIN |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 29.5 | 1.90 | +6.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | under | 93.5 | 1.88 | +6.0% | 61 | WIN |
| Colston Loveland | Chicago Bears | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.96 | +5.0% | 6 | WIN |
| Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 88.5 | 1.88 | +4.7% | 62 | LOSS |
| Caleb Williams | Chicago Bears | Passing Yards | under | 233.5 | 1.88 | +3.4% | 305 | LOSS |
| Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 92.5 | 1.90 | +0.1% | 62 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Atlanta Falcons or Chicago Bears that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 12, 2026 | Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons | 31 | 54.8% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers | 44 | 36.4% | View → |
| Tue, Oct 6, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | 17 | 47.1% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | New York Jets at Chicago Bears | 35 | 71.4% | View → |
| Tue, Sep 29, 2026 | Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears | 50 | 66.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers | 45 | 64.4% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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