MLB · Thu, May 7, 2026
Minnesota Twins at Washington Nationals
Final score: Minnesota Twins 5 – 7 Washington Nationals. 75 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 2.99 | +21.4% | WIN |
| Game Total | under | 11.5 | 2.00 | +8.2% | LOSS |
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.91 | +8.1% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 8.5 | 1.99 | +7.6% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 9 | 1.87 | +2.0% | WIN |
| Game Total | under | 10.5 | 2.05 | +1.4% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 6.75 | +286.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Trevor Larnach | Minnesota Twins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 9.00 | +206.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jose Tena | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 9.00 | +196.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.50 | +176.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 6.25 | +149.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jacob Young | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 6.75 | +145.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.80 | +140.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brady House | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.25 | +121.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Austin Martin | Minnesota Twins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 8.50 | +115.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.30 | +105.7% | 1 | WIN |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.30 | +94.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Matt Wallner | Minnesota Twins | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.90 | +93.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.10 | +87.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Kody Clemens | Minnesota Twins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.75 | +87.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Luke Keaschall | Minnesota Twins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.25 | +87.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Matt Wallner | Minnesota Twins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.75 | +81.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.25 | +79.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Curtis Mead | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.50 | +72.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Kody Clemens | Minnesota Twins | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.60 | +71.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ryan Jeffers | Minnesota Twins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.30 | +67.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Curtis Mead | Washington Nationals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.50 | +65.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Jose Tena | Washington Nationals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.30 | +65.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Nasim Nunez | Washington Nationals | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.20 | +59.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brooks Lee | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 2.5 | 1.60 | +50.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Curtis Mead | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.80 | +47.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Tristan Gray | Minnesota Twins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.06 | +45.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Jacob Young | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.74 | +41.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Simeon Woods Richardson | Minnesota Twins | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 2.40 | +39.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Brooks Lee | Minnesota Twins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.06 | +38.9% | 2 | WIN |
| Keibert Ruiz | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.57 | +38.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| Luke Keaschall | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.74 | +38.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Ryan Jeffers | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.77 | +37.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ryan Jeffers | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 2.5 | 1.46 | +37.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| Austin Martin | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.68 | +36.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Keibert Ruiz | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.33 | +30.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Keibert Ruiz | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 2.5 | 1.33 | +30.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| Kody Clemens | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.46 | +28.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Josh Bell | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.77 | +28.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Trevor Larnach | Minnesota Twins | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.30 | +25.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Austin Martin | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.72 | +22.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Trevor Larnach | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.69 | +22.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jose Tena | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.46 | +22.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Jake Irvin | Washington Nationals | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.87 | +21.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Ryan Jeffers | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.89 | +18.8% | 3 | LOSS |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 3.00 | +18.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jacob Young | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.59 | +17.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Brooks Lee | Minnesota Twins | RBIs | under | 2.5 | 1.19 | +16.2% | 2 | WIN |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.82 | +15.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Nasim Nunez | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.30 | +15.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Luke Keaschall | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.67 | +15.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Nasim Nunez | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.38 | +14.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Keibert Ruiz | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.22 | +13.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Brady House | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.43 | +12.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Keibert Ruiz | Washington Nationals | RBIs | under | 3.5 | 1.14 | +12.9% | 4 | LOSS |
| Nasim Nunez | Washington Nationals | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.19 | +11.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.93 | +10.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| Keibert Ruiz | Washington Nationals | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.18 | +9.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.47 | +9.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Tristan Gray | Minnesota Twins | RBIs | over | 1.5 | 8.00 | +9.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| Matt Wallner | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.16 | +9.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Brady House | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.52 | +7.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Josh Bell | Minnesota Twins | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.63 | +6.8% | 1 | WIN |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.89 | +6.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +5.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Trevor Larnach | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.29 | +5.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Brooks Lee | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.49 | +3.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Tristan Gray | Minnesota Twins | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.22 | +2.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.37 | +0.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Curtis Mead | Washington Nationals | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.10 | +0.6% | 2 | LOSS |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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