MLB · Fri, May 8, 2026
Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
Final score: Houston Astros 10 – 0 Cincinnati Reds. 17 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.13 | +7.6% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Dezenzo | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.43 | +62.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Christian Vazquez | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.51 | +51.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.24 | +44.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.62 | +30.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.43 | +26.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| JJ Bleday | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.75 | +24.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.32 | +18.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Christian Walker | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.42 | +17.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Nathaniel Lowe | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.57 | +11.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.29 | +8.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Tyler Stephenson | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.38 | +6.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Jose Altuve | Houston Astros | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.37 | +5.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Nick Allen | Houston Astros | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.25 | +4.8% | 0 | WIN |
| TJ Friedl | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.35 | +4.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.50 | +3.3% | 2 | LOSS |
| Mike Burrows | Houston Astros | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.65 | +2.7% | 6 | WIN |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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