MLB · Sun, May 10, 2026
Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
Final score: Houston Astros 0 – 5 Cincinnati Reds. 35 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 7.80 | +134.0% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 7.5 | 2.02 | +7.6% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.25 | +113.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.00 | +100.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.80 | +94.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Christian Walker | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.00 | +92.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Spencer Steer | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.00 | +68.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 2.5 | 1.70 | +55.0% | 3 | LOSS |
| Brice Matthews | Houston Astros | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.30 | +51.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Christian Walker | Houston Astros | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.35 | +48.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Matt McLain | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.76 | +42.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.16 | +40.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Will Benson | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.21 | +39.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.49 | +38.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.05 | +38.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.74 | +34.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Zach Dezenzo | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.05 | +34.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Tyler Stephenson | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.53 | +34.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Cam Smith | Houston Astros | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.55 | +33.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Cesar Salazar | Houston Astros | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.55 | +32.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Jose Altuve | Houston Astros | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.20 | +31.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Blake Dunn | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.60 | +26.5% | 1 | WIN |
| JJ Bleday | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.81 | +22.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Tyler Stephenson | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.21 | +17.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Isaac Paredes | Houston Astros | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.51 | +17.5% | 1 | WIN |
| JJ Bleday | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.44 | +16.5% | 1 | WIN |
| JJ Bleday | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 2.5 | 1.18 | +15.6% | 2 | WIN |
| Will Benson | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.41 | +13.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.31 | +10.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Jose Altuve | Houston Astros | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.40 | +7.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Tyler Stephenson | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.37 | +5.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Nick Allen | Houston Astros | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.60 | +5.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Nick Allen | Houston Astros | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.25 | +4.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.22 | +3.9% | 5 | WIN |
| Jose Altuve | Houston Astros | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.40 | +3.2% | 0 | WIN |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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