MLB · Tue, May 12, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox
Final score: Philadelphia Phillies 2 – 1 Boston Red Sox. 10 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 2.23 | +1.3% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.10 | +33.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jarren Duran | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.15 | +27.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies | Strikeouts | under | 6.5 | 1.85 | +22.9% | 4 | WIN |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.93 | +22.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.74 | +20.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.48 | +11.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.27 | +7.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.54 | +6.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Adolis Garcia | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.46 | +1.6% | 0 | WIN |
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