MLB · Tue, May 12, 2026
Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds
Final score: Washington Nationals 10 – 4 Cincinnati Reds. 22 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.23 | +14.8% | WIN |
| Game Total | under | 10 | 1.91 | +0.9% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.60 | +66.7% | 0 | WIN |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.45 | +39.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Keibert Ruiz | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.04 | +24.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 2.00 | +18.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.37 | +16.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.33 | +15.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| JJ Bleday | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.42 | +14.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Luis Garcia Jr. | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.42 | +13.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.47 | +13.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Brady House | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.76 | +11.9% | 2 | WIN |
| Nathaniel Lowe | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.62 | +11.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Tyler Stephenson | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.46 | +10.6% | 0 | WIN |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.27 | +9.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Luis Garcia Jr. | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.65 | +9.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Brady House | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.37 | +8.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds | Strikeouts | under | 4.5 | 1.95 | +8.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.13 | +7.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| TJ Friedl | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.34 | +4.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Spencer Steer | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.48 | +2.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.36 | +2.1% | 3 | LOSS |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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