MLB · Fri, May 15, 2026
Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals
Final score: Baltimore Orioles 2 – 3 Washington Nationals. 16 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 2.19 | +14.9% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.57 | +40.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.55 | +39.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Luis Garcia Jr. | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.99 | +28.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jeremiah Jackson | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.82 | +25.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Brady House | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.03 | +24.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Leody Taveras | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.99 | +23.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.47 | +17.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.47 | +17.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Zack Littell | Washington Nationals | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 2.13 | +12.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +12.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.69 | +8.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Luis Garcia Jr. | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.37 | +7.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Tyler O'Neill | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.47 | +6.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Adley Rutschman | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.38 | +1.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Taylor Ward | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.40 | +1.5% | 0 | WIN |
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