MLB · Sun, May 17, 2026
Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals
Final score: Baltimore Orioles 7 – 3 Washington Nationals. 18 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 2.08 | +11.8% | LOSS |
| Game Total | under | 10.5 | 1.86 | +1.1% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keibert Ruiz | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.98 | +46.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.87 | +33.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Jeremiah Jackson | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.92 | +29.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.38 | +29.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.53 | +22.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 2.10 | +19.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.48 | +18.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Brady House | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.65 | +17.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Leody Taveras | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.89 | +15.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Luis Garcia Jr. | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.76 | +15.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Tyler O'Neill | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.51 | +8.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Samuel Basallo | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.41 | +7.3% | 1 | WIN |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.31 | +6.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Taylor Ward | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.37 | +4.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Taylor Ward | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.44 | +3.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.43 | +3.5% | 0 | LOSS |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
Members receive the daily Parlay of the Day plus every positive-EV pick the model generates across NBA, MLB and NHL match lines and player props. Membership is by application.