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MLB · Thu, Jun 18, 2026
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Final score: New York Mets 6 · 4 Philadelphia Phillies. 21 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 9.5 | 1.84 | +8.2% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets | Strikeouts | under | 4.5 | 2.28 | +37.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| Bo Bichette | New York Mets | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.14 | +35.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryson Stott | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.22 | +30.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Derek Hill | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.89 | +27.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.04 | +21.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.99 | +20.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.03 | +16.8% | 8 | WIN |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.70 | +15.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.71 | +13.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| MJ Melendez | New York Mets | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.76 | +9.6% | 0 | WIN |
| J.T. Realmuto | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.55 | +9.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.40 | +8.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.31 | +6.9% | 2 | WIN |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.19 | +5.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.72 | +4.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Bo Bichette | New York Mets | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.41 | +3.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Derek Hill | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.25 | +2.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.64 | +1.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.38 | +0.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.49 | +0.2% | 0 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Philadelphia Phillies or New York Mets that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Oct 2, 2026 | Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves | 10 | 50.0% | View → |
| Tue, Sep 29, 2026 | Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves | 30 | 36.7% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 15 | 53.3% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 19 | 26.3% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 18 | 55.6% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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