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MLB · Sun, Jul 5, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals
Final score: Philadelphia Phillies 6 · 5 Kansas City Royals. 12 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 1.70 | +1.9% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.95 | +19.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.57 | +17.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.45 | +15.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.10 | +13.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.41 | +13.4% | 2 | LOSS |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.03 | +12.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| J.T. Realmuto | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.58 | +11.5% | 4 | LOSS |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.92 | +8.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.85 | +7.4% | 7 | WIN |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.67 | +3.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.48 | +3.5% | 0 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Kansas City Royals or Philadelphia Philliesthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals | 17 | 41.2% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals | 25 | 40.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals | 9 | 22.2% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 20.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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