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MLB · Mon, Jul 6, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals
Final score: Philadelphia Phillies 1 · 15 Kansas City Royals. 19 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Jensen | Kansas City Royals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.04 | +74.3% | n/a | PUSH |
| Edmundo Sosa | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.31 | +31.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Derek Hill | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.02 | +30.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.06 | +25.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.27 | +25.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.52 | +17.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.76 | +15.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.42 | +13.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.41 | +13.2% | 1 | WIN |
| J.T. Realmuto | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.60 | +10.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.05 | +9.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.45 | +8.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.74 | +6.0% | 2 | LOSS |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.53 | +5.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.47 | +2.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.93 | +1.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Derek Hill | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.28 | +1.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals | Strikeouts | under | 5.5 | 1.62 | +1.0% | 7 | LOSS |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.77 | +0.8% | 4 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Kansas City Royals or Philadelphia Philliesthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals | 17 | 41.2% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals | 25 | 40.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals | 9 | 22.2% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 20.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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