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MLB · Sat, Jul 18, 2026
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Final score: New York Mets 1 · 6 Philadelphia Phillies. 19 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Hill | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.29 | +39.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.94 | +38.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Eric Wagaman | New York Mets | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.98 | +29.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.26 | +28.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.07 | +24.9% | 4 | WIN |
| Bo Bichette | New York Mets | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.03 | +24.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets | Strikeouts | under | 5.5 | 1.63 | +22.4% | 7 | LOSS |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.62 | +15.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.38 | +12.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.16 | +10.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| A.J. Ewing | New York Mets | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.80 | +8.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.70 | +7.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.42 | +7.0% | 3 | LOSS |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.60 | +5.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Carson Benge | New York Mets | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.67 | +3.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.22 | +2.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.57 | +2.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Derek Hill | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.31 | +1.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.76 | +0.4% | 6 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Philadelphia Phillies or New York Metsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 17 | 52.9% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | New York Mets at Texas Rangers | 15 | 46.7% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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