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MLB · Fri, Jul 31, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
Final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 7 · 8 Cincinnati Reds. 20 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 7.5 | 1.85 | +6.8% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Hearn | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.08 | +57.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.03 | +56.6% | 4 | WIN |
| Jacob Gonzalez | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.67 | +54.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.74 | +53.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates | Strikeouts | under | 7.5 | 2.18 | +48.8% | 7 | WIN |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.81 | +39.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.13 | +30.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| JJ Bleday | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.99 | +28.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.28 | +28.2% | 4 | WIN |
| Eugenio Suarez | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.18 | +26.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Hunter Greene | Cincinnati Reds | Strikeouts | under | 7.5 | 1.65 | +20.9% | 4 | WIN |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.84 | +20.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.29 | +19.3% | 5 | WIN |
| Nick Gonzales | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.57 | +17.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Henry Davis | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.85 | +13.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.28 | +10.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Jake Mangum | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.59 | +6.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.60 | +5.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Nick Gonzales | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.46 | +0.7% | 2 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Cincinnati Reds or Pittsburgh Piratesthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 66.7% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 12 | 33.3% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 44.4% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 16 | 37.5% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates | 27 | 29.6% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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