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MLB · Sat, Aug 1, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
Final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4 · 1 Cincinnati Reds. 13 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 8.5 | 1.95 | +10.6% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.74 | +35.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Henry Davis | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.19 | +33.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.29 | +33.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.26 | +27.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.23 | +26.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.11 | +26.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.24 | +18.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.79 | +18.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates | Strikeouts | under | 6.5 | 1.95 | +12.8% | 5 | WIN |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds | Strikeouts | under | 5.5 | 1.60 | +9.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Nick Gonzales | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.31 | +5.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.18 | +5.4% | 1 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Cincinnati Reds or Pittsburgh Piratesthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 66.7% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 12 | 33.3% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 44.4% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 16 | 37.5% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates | 27 | 29.6% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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