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MLB · Wed, Aug 5, 2026
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
Final score: Washington Nationals 10 · 4 Philadelphia Phillies. 16 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 9.5 | 1.87 | +11.5% | WIN |
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.43 | +3.0% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.47 | +30.5% | 3 | WIN |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.18 | +29.8% | 5 | WIN |
| Jake Irvin | Washington Nationals | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.63 | +23.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.63 | +12.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.93 | +8.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.36 | +8.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.45 | +5.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.37 | +4.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Andrew Painter | Philadelphia Phillies | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.59 | +4.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Justin Crawford | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.34 | +1.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| J.T. Realmuto | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.51 | +1.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Jose Tena | Washington Nationals | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.31 | +0.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.10 | +0.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Luis Arraez | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.94 | +0.3% | 4 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Philadelphia Phillies or Washington Nationalsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 17 | 52.9% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 20.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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