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MLB · Fri, Aug 7, 2026
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
Final score: New York Mets 6 · 4 Pittsburgh Pirates. 9 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Thornton | New York Mets | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.05 | +27.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.15 | +17.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Carson Benge | New York Mets | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.49 | +12.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.99 | +11.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | Pittsburgh Pirates | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 2.21 | +8.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Francisco Lindor | New York Mets | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.22 | +4.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jake Mangum | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +4.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Jake Mangum | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.58 | +4.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.19 | +3.2% | 3 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Pittsburgh Pirates or New York Metsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 17 | 52.9% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 12 | 33.3% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 16 | 37.5% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | New York Mets at Texas Rangers | 15 | 46.7% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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