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MLB · Sat, Sep 5, 2026
New York Yankees at San Diego Padres
Final score: New York Yankees 5 · 3 San Diego Padres. 19 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 7.5 | 1.87 | +8.9% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.01 | +43.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Max Fried | New York Yankees | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.31 | +40.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.30 | +30.1% | 6 | WIN |
| Paul Goldschmidt | New York Yankees | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.10 | +24.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Luis Garcia Jr. | New York Yankees | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.20 | +22.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Ty France | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.89 | +20.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ty France | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.46 | +19.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.30 | +19.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Robbie Ray | San Diego Padres | Strikeouts | under | 5.5 | 1.85 | +18.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.96 | +18.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Cody Bellinger | New York Yankees | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.88 | +18.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Manny Machado | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.78 | +17.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.47 | +17.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.84 | +12.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Cody Bellinger | New York Yankees | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.47 | +11.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Ali Sanchez | New York Yankees | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.69 | +8.8% | n/a | PUSH |
| Samad Taylor | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.62 | +4.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Paul Goldschmidt | New York Yankees | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.29 | +2.4% | 1 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving San Diego Padres or New York Yankeesthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees | 23 | 52.2% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | 7 | 14.3% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 5 | 60.0% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 100.0% | View → |
| Tue, Sep 22, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 5 | 40.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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