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MLB · Wed, Sep 9, 2026
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies
Final score: Houston Astros 7 · 11 Philadelphia Phillies. 11 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.06 | +26.9% | 3 | WIN |
| Nick Allen | Houston Astros | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.97 | +24.2% | n/a | PUSH |
| Jeremy Pena | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.36 | +24.2% | 3 | WIN |
| Luis Arraez | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.29 | +14.1% | 3 | WIN |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.69 | +13.9% | 7 | WIN |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.22 | +13.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.41 | +11.7% | 5 | WIN |
| Jose Altuve | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.50 | +10.9% | 2 | WIN |
| Isaac Paredes | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.48 | +10.0% | 5 | WIN |
| Cristopher Sanchez | Philadelphia Phillies | Strikeouts | over | 6.5 | 2.02 | +4.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.66 | +0.2% | 1 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Philadelphia Phillies or Houston Astrosthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 8 | 50.0% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 20.0% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 10 | 50.0% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | 8 | 12.5% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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