Private North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.orgPrivate North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
MLB · Thu, Sep 10, 2026
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies
Final score: Houston Astros 2 · 1 Philadelphia Phillies. 9 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 8.5 | 1.89 | +3.8% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Pena | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.45 | +29.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.99 | +22.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Luis Arraez | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.40 | +20.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.93 | +11.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.35 | +10.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.12 | +8.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Cristian Javier | Houston Astros | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.71 | +5.7% | 5 | WIN |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.72 | +3.8% | 0 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Philadelphia Phillies or Houston Astrosthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 8 | 50.0% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 20.0% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 10 | 50.0% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | 8 | 12.5% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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