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NFL · Sun, Sep 13, 2026
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Final score: Buffalo Bills 36 · 31 Houston Texans. 32 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | home | 1.5 | 1.89 | +4.7% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon Coleman | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.62 | +108.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Joshua Palmer | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.68 | +61.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| David Montgomery | Houston Texans | Rushing Yards | under | 56.5 | 1.91 | +48.3% | 60 | LOSS |
| Keon Coleman | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | over | 11.5 | 1.93 | +46.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Dawson Knox | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.08 | +37.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| DJ Moore | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.06 | +34.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| Joshua Palmer | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | over | 11.5 | 1.89 | +33.9% | 34 | WIN |
| DJ Moore | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | under | 46.5 | 1.91 | +30.1% | 100 | LOSS |
| Dawson Knox | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | over | 12.5 | 1.89 | +29.5% | 7 | LOSS |
| Woody Marks | Houston Texans | Rushing Yards | over | 27.5 | 1.89 | +27.4% | 42 | WIN |
| Dalton Schultz | Houston Texans | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.87 | +25.8% | 4 | WIN |
| C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans | Rushing Yards | over | 10.5 | 1.93 | +21.9% | 15 | WIN |
| Kayshon Boutte | Houston Texans | Receiving Yards | over | 25.5 | 1.91 | +20.7% | 21 | LOSS |
| Nico Collins | Houston Texans | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.71 | +19.8% | 7 | LOSS |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Houston Texans | Receiving Yards | over | 16.5 | 1.90 | +18.7% | 32 | WIN |
| Woody Marks | Houston Texans | Receiving Yards | over | 9.5 | 1.95 | +17.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Nico Collins | Houston Texans | Receiving Yards | under | 70.5 | 1.88 | +16.8% | 75 | LOSS |
| Dalton Kincaid | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.89 | +12.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| Khalil Shakir | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.78 | +11.3% | 4 | WIN |
| Kayshon Boutte | Houston Texans | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.40 | +8.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Dalton Schultz | Houston Texans | Receiving Yards | over | 34.5 | 1.90 | +6.9% | 35 | WIN |
| David Montgomery | Houston Texans | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.12 | +6.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 2.47 | +5.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Jaylin Noel | Houston Texans | Receiving Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.88 | +5.2% | 53 | WIN |
| Khalil Shakir | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | over | 35.5 | 1.92 | +3.6% | 50 | WIN |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Passing Yards | under | 222.5 | 1.90 | +3.4% | 334 | LOSS |
| David Montgomery | Houston Texans | Receiving Yards | over | 11.5 | 1.91 | +2.1% | 19 | WIN |
| Jaylin Noel | Houston Texans | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.92 | +1.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Houston Texans | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.55 | +0.9% | 3 | WIN |
| C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.65 | +0.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans | Passing Yards | under | 220.5 | 1.90 | +0.1% | 274 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Houston Texans or Buffalo Billsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills | 43 | 41.9% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | 58 | 53.4% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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