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NFL · Sun, Sep 13, 2026
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Final score: New Orleans Saints 30 · 31 Detroit Lions. 21 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | home | -7 | 1.91 | +3.7% | LOSS |
| Game Total | under | 49.5 | 1.93 | +1.4% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | over | 0.5 | 2.33 | +56.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Devaughn Vele | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.84 | +54.1% | 7 | LOSS |
| Devaughn Vele | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | under | 40.5 | 1.88 | +53.3% | 69 | LOSS |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | under | 86.5 | 1.88 | +47.6% | 156 | LOSS |
| Chris Olave | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | under | 77.5 | 1.88 | +34.2% | 182 | LOSS |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | Passing Yards | under | 243.5 | 1.89 | +22.8% | 410 | LOSS |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.99 | +20.1% | 7 | LOSS |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.61 | +19.8% | 3 | LOSS |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | under | 77.5 | 1.91 | +19.7% | 67 | WIN |
| Isaac TeSlaa | Detroit Lions | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.81 | +15.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.56 | +10.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Chris Olave | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 1.69 | +7.5% | 10 | LOSS |
| Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.17 | +5.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Detroit Lions | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 1.90 | +4.4% | 10 | LOSS |
| Isaac TeSlaa | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | under | 17.5 | 1.88 | +3.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | over | 15.5 | 1.90 | +2.6% | 32 | WIN |
| Juwan Johnson | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.61 | +1.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Juwan Johnson | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | over | 41.5 | 1.91 | +1.2% | 54 | WIN |
| Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | under | 56.5 | 1.88 | +0.9% | 45 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Detroit Lions or New Orleans Saintsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints | 38 | 71.1% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | New York Jets at Detroit Lions | 52 | 51.9% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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