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NFL · Sun, Nov 1, 2026
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Final score: Minnesota Vikings 15 · 19 Detroit Lions. 38 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.42 | +6.1% | LOSS |
| Spread | away | -3 | 2.00 | +4.9% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | under | 79.5 | 1.88 | +59.2% | 33 | WIN |
| Jauan Jennings | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | over | 13.5 | 1.93 | +59.1% | 11 | LOSS |
| Justin Jefferson | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | under | 75.5 | 1.91 | +55.5% | 33 | WIN |
| Jauan Jennings | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | over | 12.5 | 1.86 | +55.2% | 11 | LOSS |
| Jauan Jennings | Minnesota Vikings | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.92 | +49.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Justin Jefferson | Minnesota Vikings | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 1.72 | +47.0% | 5 | WIN |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Receptions | over | 4.5 | 2.28 | +46.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Jordan Addison | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | under | 37.5 | 1.92 | +41.1% | 66 | LOSS |
| T.J. Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | under | 42.5 | 1.88 | +39.0% | 58 | LOSS |
| Kyler Murray | Minnesota Vikings | Passing Yards | under | 225.5 | 1.89 | +37.4% | 210 | WIN |
| Kyler Murray | Minnesota Vikings | Passing Yards | under | 224.5 | 1.90 | +37.2% | 210 | WIN |
| Kyler Murray | Minnesota Vikings | Rushing Yards | over | 24.5 | 1.89 | +35.9% | 35 | WIN |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | under | 88.5 | 1.91 | +35.6% | 153 | LOSS |
| Sione Vaki | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | under | 5.5 | 1.83 | +34.3% | 65 | LOSS |
| Jordan Addison | Minnesota Vikings | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.65 | +34.2% | 3 | WIN |
| T.J. Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | under | 40.5 | 1.87 | +34.0% | 58 | LOSS |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | under | 87.5 | 1.90 | +33.6% | 153 | LOSS |
| Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 50.5 | 1.88 | +33.1% | 70 | WIN |
| Kyler Murray | Minnesota Vikings | Rushing Yards | over | 25.5 | 1.89 | +32.1% | 35 | WIN |
| T.J. Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.89 | +32.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 52.5 | 1.91 | +31.8% | 70 | WIN |
| Kyler Murray | Minnesota Vikings | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.70 | +31.3% | 2 | LOSS |
| Sione Vaki | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | under | 4.5 | 1.88 | +30.7% | 65 | LOSS |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | Passing Yards | over | 260.5 | 1.89 | +29.4% | 176 | LOSS |
| Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.03 | +28.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 28.5 | 1.91 | +25.2% | 15 | LOSS |
| Sam LaPorta | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 42.5 | 1.92 | +16.1% | 33 | LOSS |
| Sam LaPorta | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 45.5 | 1.88 | +5.9% | 33 | LOSS |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | under | 79.5 | 1.88 | +5.6% | 46 | WIN |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | under | 78.5 | 1.89 | +4.6% | 46 | WIN |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 1.76 | +4.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | under | 1.5 | 1.83 | +4.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Jordan Mason | Minnesota Vikings | Rushing Yards | under | 49.5 | 1.88 | +4.2% | 20 | WIN |
| Sam LaPorta | Detroit Lions | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.88 | +2.6% | 3 | WIN |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Detroit Lions | Receptions | under | 7.5 | 1.72 | +1.1% | 7 | WIN |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | under | 0.5 | 1.92 | +0.5% | 0 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Detroit Lions or Minnesota Vikings that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 25, 2026 | Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings | 31 | 80.6% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 25, 2026 | Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions | 24 | 66.7% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals | 28 | 39.3% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints | 31 | 51.6% | View → |
| Mon, Oct 5, 2026 | Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers | 26 | 69.2% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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