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NFL · Fri, Sep 25, 2026
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Final score: Atlanta Falcons 35 · 14 Green Bay Packers. 45 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Golden | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 54.5 | 1.90 | +73.3% | 100 | LOSS |
| Matthew Golden | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 52.5 | 1.90 | +71.6% | 100 | LOSS |
| Matthew Golden | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 50.5 | 1.91 | +69.5% | 100 | LOSS |
| Matthew Golden | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 51.5 | 1.88 | +68.1% | 100 | LOSS |
| Matthew Golden | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.79 | +60.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| Skyy Moore | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 8.5 | 1.93 | +45.3% | 31 | LOSS |
| Jahan Dotson | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.22 | +43.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Chris Brooks | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.64 | +35.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Jahan Dotson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | under | 19.5 | 1.91 | +35.0% | 11 | WIN |
| Skyy Moore | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.57 | +34.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Christian Watson | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 70.5 | 1.88 | +32.4% | 96 | LOSS |
| Jahan Dotson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | under | 18.5 | 1.88 | +28.7% | 11 | WIN |
| Chris Brooks | Green Bay Packers | Rushing Yards | under | 16.5 | 1.89 | +26.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Christian Watson | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 67.5 | 1.89 | +24.0% | 96 | LOSS |
| Chris Brooks | Green Bay Packers | Rushing Yards | under | 15.5 | 1.88 | +23.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Christian Watson | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 2.18 | +22.7% | 7 | LOSS |
| Christian Watson | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 65.5 | 1.90 | +22.4% | 96 | LOSS |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | under | 9.5 | 1.88 | +22.0% | 9 | WIN |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 2.12 | +19.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | Rushing Yards | under | 7.5 | 1.95 | +18.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Chris Brooks | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 8.5 | 1.84 | +17.8% | 4 | WIN |
| Chris Brooks | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 7.5 | 1.94 | +16.9% | 4 | WIN |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | Rushing Yards | under | 8.5 | 1.85 | +16.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 61.5 | 1.88 | +14.5% | 194 | WIN |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | Passing Yards | over | 229.5 | 1.88 | +13.6% | 312 | WIN |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.60 | +13.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 63.5 | 1.88 | +13.1% | 194 | WIN |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | Passing Yards | over | 233.5 | 1.89 | +12.9% | 312 | WIN |
| Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 65.5 | 1.88 | +9.6% | 194 | WIN |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | over | 21.5 | 1.86 | +9.3% | 50 | WIN |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.22 | +8.4% | 2 | LOSS |
| Jonnu Smith | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.41 | +7.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | over | 22.5 | 1.88 | +7.3% | 50 | WIN |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | under | 41.5 | 1.87 | +7.0% | 19 | WIN |
| Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 67.5 | 1.88 | +6.8% | 194 | WIN |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | Passing Yards | over | 228.5 | 1.88 | +6.8% | 312 | WIN |
| Tucker Kraft | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.62 | +6.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Tucker Kraft | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | over | 41.5 | 1.91 | +5.9% | 26 | LOSS |
| Tucker Kraft | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.83 | +5.4% | 4 | WIN |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | under | 40.5 | 1.88 | +4.5% | 19 | WIN |
| Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.83 | +4.3% | 9 | LOSS |
| Jonnu Smith | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 7.5 | 1.94 | +3.3% | 16 | LOSS |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | under | 39.5 | 1.91 | +3.0% | 19 | WIN |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | over | 77.5 | 1.88 | +2.3% | 194 | WIN |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | over | 80.5 | 1.90 | +0.3% | 194 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Green Bay Packers or Atlanta Falconsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 20, 2026 | Green Bay Packers at New York Jets | 25 | 56.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 20, 2026 | Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons | 17 | 47.1% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | 24 | 41.7% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers | 23 | 43.5% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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