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NFL · Sun, Oct 25, 2026
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Final score: San Francisco 49ers 20 · 29 Atlanta Falcons. 33 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 1.70 | +7.3% | LOSS |
| Spread | away | 2.5 | 1.87 | +6.6% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Watkins | San Francisco 49ers | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.95 | +69.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| Zachariah Branch | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.58 | +63.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jordan Watkins | San Francisco 49ers | Receiving Yards | under | 23.5 | 1.88 | +61.7% | 56 | LOSS |
| Zachariah Branch | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 5.5 | 1.84 | +51.8% | 9 | WIN |
| Zachariah Branch | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 8.5 | 1.93 | +45.7% | 9 | WIN |
| Brandin Cooks | San Francisco 49ers | Receiving Yards | under | 24.5 | 1.91 | +45.0% | 13 | WIN |
| Brandin Cooks | San Francisco 49ers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.56 | +40.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Jahan Dotson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | under | 27.5 | 1.90 | +39.3% | 6 | WIN |
| Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers | Receiving Yards | under | 47.5 | 1.88 | +33.2% | 61 | LOSS |
| Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers | Receiving Yards | under | 44.5 | 1.90 | +24.0% | 61 | LOSS |
| Jahan Dotson | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.52 | +22.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | over | 0.5 | 1.83 | +20.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 2.16 | +19.6% | 7 | LOSS |
| Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.88 | +18.2% | 6 | LOSS |
| Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | Rushing Yards | over | 19.5 | 1.88 | +17.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| Austin Hooper | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 3.5 | 1.91 | +17.0% | 21 | WIN |
| Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers | Rushing Yards | over | 57.5 | 1.88 | +17.0% | 39 | LOSS |
| Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 1.74 | +15.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | Rushing Yards | over | 20.5 | 1.93 | +15.7% | 5 | LOSS |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.68 | +13.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | over | 2.5 | 1.96 | +11.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers | Rushing Yards | over | 60.5 | 1.88 | +10.5% | 39 | LOSS |
| Austin Hooper | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | over | 0.5 | 1.68 | +10.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Kaelon Black | San Francisco 49ers | Rushing Yards | under | 29.5 | 1.86 | +8.5% | 63 | LOSS |
| George Kittle | San Francisco 49ers | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.95 | +7.9% | 8 | LOSS |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 29.5 | 1.92 | +4.8% | 59 | WIN |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Passing Yards | under | 231.5 | 1.88 | +3.9% | 213 | WIN |
| Kaelon Black | San Francisco 49ers | Rushing Yards | under | 27.5 | 1.90 | +3.5% | 63 | LOSS |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Passing Yards | under | 230.5 | 1.88 | +2.6% | 213 | WIN |
| George Kittle | San Francisco 49ers | Receiving Yards | under | 72.5 | 1.90 | +2.2% | 88 | LOSS |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | under | 90.5 | 1.88 | +1.3% | 63 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Atlanta Falcons or San Francisco 49ers that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 20, 2026 | Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers | 24 | 50.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons | 37 | 40.5% | View → |
| Mon, Oct 12, 2026 | Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons | 31 | 54.8% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks | 22 | 50.0% | View → |
| Tue, Oct 6, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | 17 | 47.1% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | 25 | 56.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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