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Private North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.orgPrivate North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
NFL · Sun, Sep 27, 2026

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Final score: Houston Texans 17 · 19 Indianapolis Colts. 58 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.

Final score17 · 19
Tracked picks58
Hit rate53.4%
Decided / Wins58 / 31

Match line picks

The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.

MarketPickLineOddsEVResult
Game Totalover42.51.89+3.8%LOSS

Player prop picks

Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.

PlayerTeamStatPickLineOddsEVActualResult
Josh DownsIndianapolis ColtsReceptionsunder4.52.19+87.6%5LOSS
Woody MarksHouston TexansRushing Yardsover27.51.92+66.5%15LOSS
Laquon TreadwellIndianapolis ColtsReceiving Yardsunder18.51.93+65.2%20LOSS
David MontgomeryHouston TexansRushing Yardsunder49.51.90+61.6%33WIN
Woody MarksHouston TexansRushing Yardsover28.51.89+60.4%15LOSS
Tyler WarrenIndianapolis ColtsReceiving Yardsunder45.51.88+60.4%55LOSS
David MontgomeryHouston TexansRushing Yardsunder48.51.87+59.2%33WIN
Laquon TreadwellIndianapolis ColtsReceptionsunder1.51.65+58.9%1WIN
David MontgomeryHouston TexansRushing Yardsunder47.51.92+58.4%33WIN
Laquon TreadwellIndianapolis ColtsReceiving Yardsunder17.51.87+57.5%20LOSS
Laquon TreadwellIndianapolis ColtsReceiving Yardsunder16.51.89+56.5%20LOSS
Tyler WarrenIndianapolis ColtsReceiving Yardsunder46.51.89+55.7%55LOSS
Jaylin NoelHouston TexansReceptionsunder2.51.72+55.0%2WIN
Tyler WarrenIndianapolis ColtsReceiving Yardsunder42.51.88+53.9%55LOSS
Josh DownsIndianapolis ColtsReceiving Yardsunder51.51.90+53.6%77LOSS
Tyler WarrenIndianapolis ColtsReceiving Yardsunder44.51.90+52.3%55LOSS
Jaylin NoelHouston TexansReceiving Yardsunder28.51.91+52.1%17WIN
Xavier HutchinsonHouston TexansReceptionsunder3.51.76+50.9%3WIN
Tyler WarrenIndianapolis ColtsReceptionsunder4.52.17+49.7%9LOSS
Josh DownsIndianapolis ColtsReceiving Yardsunder48.51.88+44.3%77LOSS
Jaylin NoelHouston TexansReceiving Yardsunder25.51.89+42.1%17WIN
Kayshon BoutteHouston TexansReceptionsunder2.52.00+40.7%2WIN
Josh DownsIndianapolis ColtsReceiving Yardsunder50.51.89+37.5%77LOSS
Woody MarksHouston TexansReceiving Yardsunder12.51.88+35.9%6WIN
Woody MarksHouston TexansReceiving Yardsunder11.51.93+33.5%6WIN
Xavier HutchinsonHouston TexansReceiving Yardsunder39.51.88+33.1%51LOSS
Xavier HutchinsonHouston TexansReceiving Yardsunder38.51.92+32.0%51LOSS
Jonathan TaylorIndianapolis ColtsReceptionsunder2.52.14+31.6%2WIN
Daniel JonesIndianapolis ColtsPassing Yardsunder220.51.88+31.3%235LOSS
Kayshon BoutteHouston TexansReceiving Yardsunder37.51.91+30.5%21WIN
Jonathan TaylorIndianapolis ColtsReceptionsunder3.51.60+29.3%2WIN
Daniel JonesIndianapolis ColtsPassing Yardsunder218.51.90+29.0%235LOSS
Daniel JonesIndianapolis ColtsRushing Yardsunder10.51.92+27.9%5WIN
David MontgomeryHouston TexansReceiving Yardsover8.51.90+27.6%15WIN
Jonathan TaylorIndianapolis ColtsReceiving Yardsunder22.51.93+25.9%4WIN
Jonathan TaylorIndianapolis ColtsRushing Yardsunder80.51.89+25.6%68WIN
Kayshon BoutteHouston TexansReceiving Yardsunder35.51.91+25.6%21WIN
Keenan AllenIndianapolis ColtsReceiving Yardsunder33.51.92+24.4%63LOSS
David MontgomeryHouston TexansReceiving Yardsover9.51.92+22.6%15WIN
Jonathan TaylorIndianapolis ColtsRushing Yardsunder78.51.89+22.4%68WIN
Daniel JonesIndianapolis ColtsPassing TDsover1.52.66+17.6%1LOSS
Dalton SchultzHouston TexansReceiving Yardsunder52.51.90+15.6%30WIN
Dalton SchultzHouston TexansReceiving Yardsunder51.51.88+13.7%30WIN
Woody MarksHouston TexansReceptionsunder1.52.24+12.4%1WIN
C.J. StroudHouston TexansRushing Yardsunder10.51.88+11.8%10WIN
Jonathan TaylorIndianapolis ColtsReceiving Yardsunder19.51.88+10.5%4WIN
Dalton SchultzHouston TexansReceiving Yardsunder49.51.91+10.2%30WIN
C.J. StroudHouston TexansPassing TDsunder1.51.65+10.0%1WIN
C.J. StroudHouston TexansPassing Yardsover236.51.89+9.5%167LOSS
Keenan AllenIndianapolis ColtsReceiving Yardsunder34.51.89+9.2%63LOSS
C.J. StroudHouston TexansPassing Yardsover237.51.88+7.9%167LOSS
Keenan AllenIndianapolis ColtsReceptionsunder3.51.81+6.8%6LOSS
C.J. StroudHouston TexansPassing Yardsover239.51.89+5.5%167LOSS
Dalton SchultzHouston TexansReceptionsunder5.51.87+5.4%3WIN
David MontgomeryHouston TexansReceptionsunder1.51.85+3.2%2LOSS
Keenan AllenIndianapolis ColtsReceptionsover3.51.94+2.1%6WIN
Daniel JonesIndianapolis ColtsPassing TDsunder1.51.48+1.9%1WIN

Recent NFL games for these teams

Other games involving Indianapolis Colts or Houston Texansthat we’ve published picks for.

DateMatchupPicksHit rate
Sun, Sep 13, 2026Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans3240.6%View →
Sun, Sep 13, 2026Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts2360.9%View →

Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET

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