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NFL · Sun, Sep 27, 2026
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final score: Minnesota Vikings 23 · 16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 31 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.39 | +99.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Justin Jefferson | Minnesota Vikings | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 2.13 | +53.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | over | 16.5 | 1.93 | +50.2% | 6 | LOSS |
| Emeka Egbuka | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.25 | +47.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.55 | +47.6% | 2 | WIN |
| Jordan Addison | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | under | 36.5 | 1.91 | +44.4% | 90 | LOSS |
| Jordan Addison | Minnesota Vikings | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.61 | +43.5% | 5 | LOSS |
| Emeka Egbuka | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | under | 48.5 | 1.92 | +42.5% | 62 | LOSS |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | over | 11.5 | 1.93 | +42.2% | 14 | WIN |
| Justin Jefferson | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | under | 73.5 | 1.88 | +40.6% | 32 | WIN |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | over | 9.5 | 1.84 | +39.9% | 14 | WIN |
| Cade Otton | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.38 | +39.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Emeka Egbuka | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | under | 49.5 | 1.90 | +38.9% | 62 | LOSS |
| Jordan Addison | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | under | 34.5 | 1.92 | +38.3% | 90 | LOSS |
| Justin Jefferson | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | under | 70.5 | 1.88 | +35.0% | 32 | WIN |
| Emeka Egbuka | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.64 | +34.8% | 5 | LOSS |
| Justin Jefferson | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | under | 68.5 | 1.92 | +31.2% | 32 | WIN |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Passing Yards | under | 218.5 | 1.88 | +29.2% | 217 | WIN |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Passing Yards | under | 217.5 | 1.88 | +28.4% | 217 | WIN |
| Cade Otton | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 1.57 | +21.9% | 3 | WIN |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Passing Yards | under | 216.5 | 1.88 | +20.2% | 217 | LOSS |
| T.J. Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.95 | +18.6% | 2 | WIN |
| T.J. Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | under | 30.5 | 1.93 | +17.0% | 11 | WIN |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.58 | +16.1% | 1 | WIN |
| T.J. Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | under | 29.5 | 1.91 | +14.4% | 11 | WIN |
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | over | 57.5 | 1.91 | +9.2% | 46 | LOSS |
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | over | 58.5 | 1.89 | +5.1% | 46 | LOSS |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | over | 18.5 | 1.89 | +4.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 1.74 | +4.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | over | 19.5 | 1.93 | +3.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | under | 58.5 | 1.89 | +0.6% | 46 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Minnesota Vikings that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 10, 2026 | Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings | 25 | 84.0% | View → |
| Mon, Nov 9, 2026 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears | 31 | 54.8% | View → |
| Sun, Nov 1, 2026 | Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions | 38 | 52.6% | View → |
| Sun, Nov 1, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 35 | 54.3% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 25, 2026 | Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings | 31 | 80.6% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers | 39 | 69.2% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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