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NFL · Sun, Sep 27, 2026
New York Jets at Detroit Lions
Final score: New York Jets 24 · 31 Detroit Lions. 52 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | home | -6.5 | 1.91 | +7.1% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 47.5 | 1.93 | +4.2% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 48.5 | 1.93 | +3.0% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sione Vaki | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | under | 10.5 | 1.83 | +73.6% | 26 | LOSS |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | under | 87.5 | 1.90 | +52.2% | 99 | LOSS |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | under | 88.5 | 1.88 | +51.6% | 99 | LOSS |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | under | 84.5 | 1.91 | +49.8% | 99 | LOSS |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | under | 89.5 | 1.88 | +49.2% | 99 | LOSS |
| Breece Hall | New York Jets | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.68 | +37.7% | 3 | WIN |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Receptions | over | 4.5 | 2.04 | +34.2% | 7 | WIN |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | Passing Yards | over | 260.5 | 1.88 | +31.8% | 269 | WIN |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | Passing Yards | over | 261.5 | 1.89 | +31.5% | 269 | WIN |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | under | 11.5 | 1.89 | +28.3% | 12 | LOSS |
| Garrett Wilson | New York Jets | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 1.75 | +27.6% | 10 | LOSS |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | Passing Yards | over | 256.5 | 1.90 | +27.3% | 269 | WIN |
| Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 54.5 | 1.91 | +26.1% | 49 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Williams | New York Jets | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.11 | +25.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 51.5 | 1.88 | +25.4% | 49 | LOSS |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | Passing Yards | over | 257.5 | 1.88 | +24.9% | 269 | WIN |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | Passing Yards | over | 258.5 | 1.88 | +23.8% | 269 | WIN |
| Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 52.5 | 1.88 | +23.8% | 49 | LOSS |
| Garrett Wilson | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 61.5 | 1.88 | +23.1% | 107 | WIN |
| Breece Hall | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 23.5 | 1.86 | +19.5% | 23 | WIN |
| Braelon Allen | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | over | 17.5 | 1.87 | +19.1% | 14 | LOSS |
| Garrett Wilson | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 64.5 | 1.91 | +19.0% | 107 | WIN |
| Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 55.5 | 1.88 | +18.8% | 49 | LOSS |
| Breece Hall | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 22.5 | 1.87 | +17.1% | 23 | LOSS |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.62 | +15.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Passing Yards | under | 226.5 | 1.88 | +15.4% | 321 | LOSS |
| Garrett Wilson | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 65.5 | 1.88 | +15.1% | 107 | WIN |
| Garrett Wilson | New York Jets | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.99 | +14.8% | 10 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Williams | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 20.5 | 1.90 | +14.5% | 21 | WIN |
| Jeremy Ruckert | New York Jets | Receptions | over | 0.5 | 1.43 | +14.1% | 5 | WIN |
| Breece Hall | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 21.5 | 1.91 | +13.4% | 23 | LOSS |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 2.57 | +11.1% | 3 | WIN |
| Breece Hall | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | over | 56.5 | 1.88 | +10.4% | 32 | LOSS |
| Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.72 | +10.2% | 4 | WIN |
| Breece Hall | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | over | 57.5 | 1.90 | +9.2% | 32 | LOSS |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 34.5 | 1.92 | +8.1% | 65 | WIN |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 32.5 | 1.88 | +7.9% | 65 | WIN |
| Sam LaPorta | Detroit Lions | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.92 | +7.5% | 3 | WIN |
| Garrett Wilson | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 76.5 | 1.90 | +7.0% | 107 | LOSS |
| Breece Hall | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | under | 60.5 | 1.89 | +5.7% | 32 | WIN |
| Isaac TeSlaa | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 15.5 | 1.86 | +5.7% | 66 | WIN |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 33.5 | 1.87 | +4.7% | 65 | WIN |
| Sam LaPorta | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 45.5 | 1.91 | +3.4% | 44 | LOSS |
| Sam LaPorta | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 46.5 | 1.88 | +3.4% | 44 | LOSS |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Detroit Lions | Receptions | under | 7.5 | 1.71 | +3.2% | 4 | WIN |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 35.5 | 1.93 | +2.6% | 65 | WIN |
| Isaiah Williams | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 25.5 | 1.93 | +2.5% | 21 | WIN |
| Sam LaPorta | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 47.5 | 1.91 | +2.3% | 44 | LOSS |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.60 | +0.3% | 3 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Detroit Lions or New York Jetsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 20, 2026 | Green Bay Packers at New York Jets | 25 | 56.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | New York Jets at Tennessee Titans | 24 | 37.5% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions | 21 | 33.3% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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