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NFL · Sun, Sep 27, 2026
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
Final score: New England Patriots 6 · 35 Jacksonville Jaguars. 59 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 46.5 | 1.87 | +2.0% | WIN |
| Game Total | under | 45.5 | 1.95 | +1.9% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten | Jacksonville Jaguars | Rushing Yards | under | 54.5 | 1.92 | +80.0% | 73 | LOSS |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Jacksonville Jaguars | Rushing Yards | under | 53.5 | 1.90 | +77.1% | 73 | LOSS |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.35 | +77.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Jacksonville Jaguars | Rushing Yards | under | 51.5 | 1.88 | +70.1% | 73 | LOSS |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.98 | +67.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Jacksonville Jaguars | Rushing Yards | over | 20.5 | 1.92 | +59.4% | 37 | WIN |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving Yards | under | 10.5 | 1.90 | +59.3% | 17 | LOSS |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving Yards | under | 9.5 | 1.93 | +57.2% | 17 | LOSS |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Jacksonville Jaguars | Rushing Yards | over | 19.5 | 1.89 | +50.9% | 37 | WIN |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Jacksonville Jaguars | Rushing Yards | over | 21.5 | 1.93 | +49.9% | 37 | WIN |
| Romeo Doubs | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.69 | +38.7% | 3 | WIN |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.57 | +37.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing Yards | over | 222.5 | 1.90 | +36.6% | 199 | LOSS |
| Romeo Doubs | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 43.5 | 1.91 | +35.9% | 49 | LOSS |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.92 | +32.9% | 16 | WIN |
| Romeo Doubs | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 42.5 | 1.88 | +31.6% | 49 | LOSS |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 13.5 | 1.85 | +31.3% | 16 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | under | 25.5 | 1.93 | +31.3% | 18 | WIN |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.29 | +30.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Mack Hollins | New England Patriots | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 1.68 | +30.4% | 6 | WIN |
| Romeo Doubs | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 44.5 | 1.88 | +29.4% | 49 | LOSS |
| Jakobi Meyers | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving Yards | over | 34.5 | 1.90 | +27.8% | 64 | WIN |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 29.5 | 1.91 | +26.7% | 38 | LOSS |
| Parker Washington | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 2.19 | +26.4% | 3 | WIN |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | over | 34.5 | 1.88 | +25.9% | 22 | LOSS |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 1.88 | +25.8% | 3 | WIN |
| Jakobi Meyers | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving Yards | over | 35.5 | 1.91 | +25.4% | 64 | WIN |
| Jakobi Meyers | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.06 | +24.5% | 7 | WIN |
| Mack Hollins | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 33.5 | 1.88 | +23.6% | 87 | WIN |
| Mack Hollins | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 34.5 | 1.91 | +23.3% | 87 | WIN |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 28.5 | 1.90 | +23.0% | 38 | LOSS |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing Yards | over | 228.5 | 1.90 | +22.5% | 182 | LOSS |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing Yards | over | 213.5 | 1.88 | +19.2% | 199 | LOSS |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 30.5 | 1.87 | +19.1% | 38 | LOSS |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | over | 37.5 | 1.87 | +18.7% | 22 | LOSS |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing Yards | over | 217.5 | 1.89 | +18.6% | 199 | LOSS |
| Parker Washington | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.68 | +18.1% | 3 | WIN |
| Parker Washington | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving Yards | over | 62.5 | 1.91 | +16.8% | 40 | LOSS |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing Yards | over | 218.5 | 1.90 | +15.3% | 199 | LOSS |
| Parker Washington | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving Yards | over | 66.5 | 1.91 | +15.2% | 40 | LOSS |
| Brenton Strange | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving Yards | over | 26.5 | 1.87 | +13.8% | 32 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | under | 26.5 | 1.87 | +13.4% | 18 | WIN |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.85 | +12.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Parker Washington | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving Yards | over | 67.5 | 1.89 | +12.2% | 40 | LOSS |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.63 | +12.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing Yards | over | 226.5 | 1.90 | +11.7% | 182 | LOSS |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing Yards | over | 224.5 | 1.88 | +9.9% | 182 | LOSS |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing Yards | over | 225.5 | 1.90 | +9.8% | 182 | LOSS |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | Rushing Yards | over | 15.5 | 1.88 | +5.9% | 25 | WIN |
| Brenton Strange | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving Yards | over | 28.5 | 1.92 | +5.1% | 32 | WIN |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 42.5 | 1.87 | +4.1% | 5 | WIN |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | Rushing Yards | over | 16.5 | 1.93 | +3.8% | 25 | WIN |
| Brenton Strange | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.57 | +3.8% | 3 | WIN |
| Brenton Strange | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.36 | +3.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 41.5 | 1.89 | +2.6% | 5 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.56 | +2.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 2.30 | +1.7% | 0 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Jacksonville Jaguars or New England Patriotsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars | 18 | 44.4% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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