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NFL · Sun, Sep 27, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
Final score: Kansas City Chiefs 24 · 10 Miami Dolphins. 41 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | over | 4.5 | 2.24 | +74.1% | 7 | WIN |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 38.5 | 1.91 | +68.5% | 56 | LOSS |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 35.5 | 1.91 | +63.5% | 56 | LOSS |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Passing Yards | over | 234.5 | 1.88 | +50.6% | 246 | WIN |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.96 | +48.5% | 5 | LOSS |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Passing Yards | over | 235.5 | 1.88 | +47.9% | 246 | WIN |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | over | 18.5 | 1.90 | +42.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Rashee Rice | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | over | 47.5 | 1.88 | +40.4% | 88 | WIN |
| Rashee Rice | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | over | 49.5 | 1.91 | +38.3% | 88 | WIN |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | over | 15.5 | 1.88 | +34.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| De'Von Achane | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | over | 60.5 | 1.90 | +33.7% | 17 | LOSS |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.48 | +30.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Passing Yards | over | 233.5 | 1.88 | +28.7% | 246 | WIN |
| De'Von Achane | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | over | 61.5 | 1.90 | +25.6% | 17 | LOSS |
| Tyquan Thornton | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 20.5 | 1.89 | +25.3% | 22 | LOSS |
| Tyquan Thornton | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.69 | +24.3% | 2 | LOSS |
| Xavier Worthy | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.85 | +23.9% | 2 | WIN |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 8.5 | 1.93 | +23.5% | 41 | LOSS |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | under | 84.5 | 1.90 | +22.4% | 70 | WIN |
| Xavier Worthy | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 37.5 | 1.91 | +21.7% | 20 | WIN |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Passing TDs | under | 0.5 | 2.59 | +19.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | under | 83.5 | 1.88 | +19.4% | 70 | WIN |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.76 | +17.9% | 2 | WIN |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 33.5 | 1.92 | +15.2% | 56 | LOSS |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 34.5 | 1.90 | +14.5% | 56 | LOSS |
| Travis Kelce | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | over | 4.5 | 1.93 | +12.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| Travis Kelce | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 51.5 | 1.88 | +11.4% | 59 | LOSS |
| Greg Dulcich | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | over | 22.5 | 1.88 | +10.6% | 55 | WIN |
| Greg Dulcich | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | over | 23.5 | 1.87 | +10.1% | 55 | WIN |
| De'Von Achane | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | over | 24.5 | 1.89 | +9.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | over | 22.5 | 1.89 | +7.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Passing Yards | under | 178.5 | 1.88 | +5.4% | 210 | LOSS |
| Travis Kelce | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 52.5 | 1.88 | +4.1% | 59 | LOSS |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 32.5 | 1.92 | +4.0% | 56 | LOSS |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Passing Yards | under | 177.5 | 1.90 | +3.9% | 210 | LOSS |
| De'Von Achane | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.98 | +3.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | over | 23.5 | 1.88 | +2.8% | 3 | LOSS |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Passing Yards | under | 179.5 | 1.90 | +2.1% | 210 | LOSS |
| Xavier Worthy | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 34.5 | 1.92 | +1.0% | 20 | WIN |
| De'Von Achane | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | over | 27.5 | 1.88 | +0.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Travis Kelce | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 50.5 | 1.91 | +0.1% | 59 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Miami Dolphins or Kansas City Chiefs that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Nov 8, 2026 | New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs | 39 | 46.2% | View → |
| Sun, Nov 8, 2026 | Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins | 36 | 58.3% | View → |
| Sun, Nov 1, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos | 21 | 71.4% | View → |
| Sun, Nov 1, 2026 | New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins | 29 | 37.9% | View → |
| Mon, Oct 26, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks | 30 | 66.7% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 25, 2026 | Miami Dolphins at New York Jets | 30 | 50.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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