MLB · Thu, May 7, 2026
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
Final score: Cincinnati Reds 3 – 8 Chicago Cubs. 66 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 6.5 | 1.79 | +12.9% | WIN |
| Game Total | under | 12.5 | 1.71 | +11.1% | WIN |
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 3.60 | +8.0% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 8.5 | 1.82 | +0.9% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 9 | 2.00 | +0.7% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.25 | +169.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.00 | +162.0% | 1 | WIN |
| JJ Bleday | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.50 | +151.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Blake Dunn | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 7.25 | +139.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Michael Busch | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.00 | +112.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ian Happ | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.25 | +105.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Alex Bregman | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 6.00 | +92.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Alex Bregman | Chicago Cubs | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.10 | +88.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Spencer Steer | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.50 | +74.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Nathaniel Lowe | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.77 | +70.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs | Strikeouts | under | 7.5 | 2.20 | +69.6% | 10 | LOSS |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs | Strikeouts | under | 8.5 | 1.95 | +69.1% | 10 | LOSS |
| JJ Bleday | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.80 | +64.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Nico Hoerner | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.20 | +63.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Dane Myers | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.58 | +62.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Dansby Swanson | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.40 | +61.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.55 | +61.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Michael Conforto | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.80 | +59.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.65 | +54.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Ian Happ | Chicago Cubs | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.50 | +49.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Spencer Steer | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.87 | +48.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Dane Myers | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 7.50 | +45.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.14 | +41.4% | 2 | LOSS |
| Blake Dunn | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.30 | +38.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds | Strikeouts | over | 2.5 | 1.62 | +36.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.30 | +35.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Matt McLain | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.60 | +34.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.93 | +32.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Michael Conforto | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.33 | +31.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| Miguel Amaya | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.47 | +29.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Michael Busch | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.60 | +27.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Matt McLain | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.60 | +26.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.60 | +24.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Michael Conforto | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.31 | +23.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| Dansby Swanson | Chicago Cubs | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.45 | +23.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Dansby Swanson | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.49 | +23.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Dane Myers | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.30 | +22.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Tyler Stephenson | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.27 | +20.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Miguel Amaya | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.15 | +18.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Tyler Stephenson | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.90 | +17.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Tyler Stephenson | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.50 | +17.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Matt McLain | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.38 | +16.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Michael Conforto | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | under | 2.5 | 1.18 | +16.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Alex Bregman | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.93 | +15.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.23 | +14.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Miguel Amaya | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | under | 2.5 | 1.15 | +13.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 6.75 | +11.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs | Strikeouts | under | 6.5 | 1.73 | +10.4% | 10 | LOSS |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.65 | +8.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs | Strikeouts | under | 5.5 | 2.24 | +7.1% | 10 | LOSS |
| Michael Busch | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.48 | +7.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.59 | +6.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Dane Myers | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.32 | +6.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Blake Dunn | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.82 | +5.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Miguel Amaya | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.60 | +5.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Nico Hoerner | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.49 | +4.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Dansby Swanson | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.21 | +4.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.25 | +4.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Nathaniel Lowe | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.22 | +3.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Michael Conforto | Chicago Cubs | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.46 | +0.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Tyler Stephenson | Cincinnati Reds | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.32 | +0.4% | 0 | WIN |
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