MLB · Fri, May 15, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates
Final score: Philadelphia Phillies 11 – 9 Pittsburgh Pirates. 15 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.74 | +3.2% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 8 | 1.91 | +3.1% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.80 | +41.6% | 3 | WIN |
| Ryan O'Hearn | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.87 | +39.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.38 | +34.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Rafael Marchan | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.98 | +32.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.97 | +31.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Konnor Griffin | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.20 | +27.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.10 | +27.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.55 | +26.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.88 | +21.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.48 | +20.0% | 5 | WIN |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.42 | +8.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.49 | +1.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies | Strikeouts | over | 5.5 | 2.14 | +0.8% | 2 | LOSS |
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