MLB · Sat, May 16, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates
Final score: Philadelphia Phillies 6 – 0 Pittsburgh Pirates. 8 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 2.44 | +20.6% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 8 | 1.85 | +3.7% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Davis | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.98 | +23.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.46 | +11.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Cristopher Sanchez | Philadelphia Phillies | Strikeouts | under | 7.5 | 1.66 | +11.0% | 13 | LOSS |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.88 | +1.0% | 2 | LOSS |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.65 | +0.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Nick Gonzales | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.53 | +0.1% | 2 | WIN |
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