MLB · Sun, May 17, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates
Final score: Philadelphia Phillies 6 – 0 Pittsburgh Pirates. 15 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 7 | 1.86 | +11.1% | LOSS |
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.70 | +1.5% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.08 | +60.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.23 | +49.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.94 | +48.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.52 | +44.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.28 | +41.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates | Strikeouts | under | 6.5 | 2.23 | +39.4% | 7 | LOSS |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.61 | +37.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Konnor Griffin | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.26 | +29.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies | Strikeouts | under | 6.5 | 1.82 | +24.9% | 8 | LOSS |
| Henry Davis | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.85 | +16.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.56 | +6.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Justin Crawford | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.81 | +2.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.60 | +0.0% | 1 | WIN |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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