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MLB · Wed, Jul 1, 2026
San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
Final score: San Diego Padres 7 · 9 Chicago Cubs. 27 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.51 | +55.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| Freddy Fermin | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.32 | +54.5% | 0 | WIN |
| JP Sears | San Diego Padres | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.69 | +33.8% | 4 | WIN |
| Jase Bowen | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.84 | +27.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Manny Machado | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.47 | +24.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.44 | +15.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Nico Hoerner | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.53 | +15.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.61 | +13.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.41 | +13.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Miguel Andujar | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.43 | +13.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Nico Hoerner | Chicago Cubs | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.86 | +12.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs | Strikeouts | over | 5.5 | 2.27 | +12.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.59 | +11.0% | 6 | WIN |
| Manny Machado | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.87 | +10.7% | 5 | LOSS |
| Alex Bregman | Chicago Cubs | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.75 | +8.8% | 4 | LOSS |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.44 | +8.0% | 2 | LOSS |
| Carson Kelly | Chicago Cubs | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.61 | +6.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Miguel Andujar | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.75 | +5.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Alex Bregman | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +5.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.57 | +5.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.69 | +4.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Colin Rea | Chicago Cubs | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.68 | +4.0% | 5 | WIN |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.43 | +3.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Samad Taylor | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.63 | +1.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.70 | +0.9% | 8 | LOSS |
| Michael Busch | Chicago Cubs | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.67 | +0.9% | 4 | LOSS |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.81 | +0.2% | 4 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Chicago Cubs or San Diego Padresthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | 7 | 14.3% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs | 20 | 40.0% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 100.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 20, 2026 | Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres | 6 | 33.3% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 20, 2026 | Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds | 12 | 58.3% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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