Private North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.orgPrivate North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
MLB · Thu, Jul 2, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies
Final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 6 · 1 Philadelphia Phillies. 19 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.76 | +2.3% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Hearn | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.66 | +32.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Alan Rangel | Philadelphia Phillies | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.22 | +31.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.24 | +26.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.66 | +24.4% | 3 | WIN |
| Tyler Callihan | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.00 | +22.9% | n/a | PUSH |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.90 | +22.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.36 | +18.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.75 | +17.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.60 | +17.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ryan O'Hearn | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.23 | +13.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.84 | +13.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.37 | +11.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.95 | +9.4% | 2 | WIN |
| J.T. Realmuto | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.54 | +8.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.00 | +8.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.43 | +6.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Konnor Griffin | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +3.1% | n/a | PUSH |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.12 | +2.6% | 1 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Philadelphia Phillies or Pittsburgh Piratesthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 12 | 33.3% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 16 | 37.5% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates | 27 | 29.6% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 20.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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