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MLB · Sat, Jul 4, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
Final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 7 · 1 Washington Nationals. 12 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 2.38 | +23.4% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esmerlyn Valdez | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.24 | +32.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.12 | +24.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Luis Garcia Jr. | Washington Nationals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.46 | +11.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Zack Littell | Washington Nationals | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 2.17 | +10.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.44 | +9.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Jake Mangum | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.57 | +9.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Konnor Griffin | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.48 | +8.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.43 | +5.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates | Strikeouts | over | 5.5 | 1.70 | +3.7% | 7 | WIN |
| Ryan O'Hearn | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.04 | +2.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Luis Garcia Jr. | Washington Nationals | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.91 | +2.3% | 0 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Washington Nationals or Pittsburgh Piratesthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 17 | 52.9% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 12 | 33.3% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 16 | 37.5% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates | 27 | 29.6% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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