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MLB · Sun, Jul 5, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
Final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 11 · 5 Washington Nationals. 12 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.76 | +5.1% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.00 | +18.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ryan O'Hearn | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.26 | +14.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.08 | +12.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.23 | +10.9% | 4 | WIN |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals | Strikeouts | under | 6.5 | 1.66 | +10.9% | 3 | WIN |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.95 | +9.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Luis Garcia Jr. | Washington Nationals | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.05 | +8.6% | 5 | WIN |
| Jake Mangum | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.54 | +7.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Konnor Griffin | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +2.3% | 2 | LOSS |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.13 | +1.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.86 | +1.4% | 0 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Washington Nationals or Pittsburgh Piratesthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 17 | 52.9% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 12 | 33.3% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 16 | 37.5% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates | 27 | 29.6% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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