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MLB · Sat, Jul 11, 2026
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Final score: Chicago Cubs 5 · 3 Cincinnati Reds. 12 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.95 | +13.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.99 | +12.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.06 | +8.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Nico Hoerner | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.41 | +7.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Alex Bregman | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.38 | +6.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Carson Kelly | Chicago Cubs | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.61 | +5.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| Alex Bregman | Chicago Cubs | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.70 | +5.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| JJ Bleday | Cincinnati Reds | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.06 | +4.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.38 | +2.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.36 | +2.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Nico Hoerner | Chicago Cubs | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.63 | +1.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.41 | +0.2% | 0 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Cincinnati Reds or Chicago Cubs that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Sep 30, 2026 | Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres | 27 | 25.9% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 11 | 72.7% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 26 | 50.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 44.4% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs | 20 | 40.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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