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MLB · Sat, Jul 18, 2026
Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros
Final score: Baltimore Orioles 4 · 2 Houston Astros. 16 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.97 | +48.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.07 | +34.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.50 | +28.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Isaac Paredes | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.90 | +21.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Christian Walker | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.40 | +19.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.45 | +18.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Yainer Diaz | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.89 | +18.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Christian Walker | Houston Astros | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.64 | +18.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Dean Kremer | Baltimore Orioles | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.76 | +17.5% | 5 | WIN |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Houston Astros | Strikeouts | under | 5.5 | 2.16 | +16.7% | 6 | LOSS |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.27 | +15.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Adley Rutschman | Baltimore Orioles | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.39 | +11.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Jeremy Pena | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.37 | +10.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.19 | +6.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Samuel Basallo | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.40 | +1.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jeremy Pena | Houston Astros | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.42 | +1.0% | 1 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Houston Astros or Baltimore Oriolesthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees | 23 | 52.2% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 8 | 50.0% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 10 | 50.0% | View → |
| Mon, Sep 21, 2026 | Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles | 8 | 37.5% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 20, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros | 8 | 25.0% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 19, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros | 12 | 50.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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