Private North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.orgPrivate North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
MLB · Fri, Aug 14, 2026
Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates
Final score: Boston Red Sox 4 · 8 Pittsburgh Pirates. 11 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.39 | +26.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.36 | +21.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.18 | +16.4% | n/a | PUSH |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.29 | +16.3% | 6 | WIN |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.42 | +12.0% | 3 | WIN |
| Nick Gonzales | Pittsburgh Pirates | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.43 | +7.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.05 | +5.2% | 5 | WIN |
| Nick Sogard | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.52 | +4.3% | 2 | LOSS |
| Jake Mangum | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.39 | +3.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Adley Rutschman | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.24 | +1.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.62 | +0.9% | 1 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Pittsburgh Pirates or Boston Red Soxthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 12 | 33.3% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers | 16 | 37.5% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates | 27 | 29.6% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 19 | 21.1% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 10 | 40.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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