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NFL · Sun, Sep 13, 2026
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Final score: Atlanta Falcons 13 · 20 Pittsburgh Steelers. 23 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 41.5 | 1.98 | +2.9% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Rushing Yards | over | 0.5 | 1.95 | +34.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Rico Dowdle | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | over | 11.5 | 1.90 | +18.2% | 6 | LOSS |
| Darnell Washington | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.85 | +16.8% | 18 | WIN |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Rushing Yards | over | 43.5 | 1.91 | +15.4% | 46 | WIN |
| Jahan Dotson | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.87 | +13.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Rico Dowdle | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.61 | +12.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Rico Dowdle | Pittsburgh Steelers | Rushing Yards | over | 46.5 | 1.88 | +12.1% | 15 | LOSS |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 34.5 | 1.88 | +10.6% | 90 | WIN |
| Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 54.5 | 1.88 | +9.7% | 29 | LOSS |
| Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.01 | +8.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | over | 19.5 | 1.88 | +7.5% | 31 | WIN |
| Roman Wilson | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | over | 10.5 | 1.85 | +6.9% | 26 | WIN |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Rushing Yards | under | 77.5 | 1.90 | +5.8% | 83 | LOSS |
| Roman Wilson | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.62 | +4.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| Jahan Dotson | Atlanta Falcons | Receiving Yards | over | 13.5 | 1.88 | +4.3% | 19 | WIN |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.00 | +3.7% | 5 | LOSS |
| Darnell Washington | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.65 | +3.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | over | 4.5 | 1.66 | +1.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Passing Yards | under | 213.5 | 1.90 | +1.4% | 221 | LOSS |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | over | 4.5 | 2.17 | +1.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 41.5 | 1.88 | +0.9% | 58 | LOSS |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | Receptions | over | 4.5 | 2.20 | +0.4% | 8 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Pittsburgh Steelers or Atlanta Falconsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers | 50 | 48.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers | 45 | 64.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 20, 2026 | Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons | 17 | 47.1% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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