Private North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.orgPrivate North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
NFL · Tue, Sep 15, 2026
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Final score: Denver Broncos 10 · 31 Kansas City Chiefs. 27 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 43.5 | 1.91 | +1.6% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.64 | +40.0% | 3 | WIN |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.85 | +36.2% | 23 | WIN |
| RJ Harvey | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | over | 18.5 | 1.88 | +29.7% | 18 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Waddle | Denver Broncos | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.98 | +28.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Tyquan Thornton | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | over | 19.5 | 1.91 | +22.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| J.K. Dobbins | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | over | 51.5 | 1.90 | +22.1% | 36 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Waddle | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | under | 56.5 | 1.91 | +19.6% | 2 | WIN |
| Adam Trautman | Denver Broncos | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.76 | +18.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | under | 61.5 | 1.88 | +18.2% | 173 | LOSS |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Passing Yards | over | 225.5 | 1.88 | +17.2% | 184 | LOSS |
| Adam Trautman | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 8.5 | 1.94 | +16.6% | 10 | WIN |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | over | 16.5 | 1.93 | +14.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| Noah Gray | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.41 | +13.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| J.K. Dobbins | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 4.5 | 1.92 | +12.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Courtland Sutton | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 42.5 | 1.87 | +10.0% | 11 | LOSS |
| Rashee Rice | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | over | 5.5 | 2.02 | +10.0% | 2 | LOSS |
| RJ Harvey | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 16.5 | 1.92 | +9.9% | 23 | WIN |
| Xavier Worthy | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.68 | +7.7% | 3 | WIN |
| RJ Harvey | Denver Broncos | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 1.98 | +6.3% | 4 | WIN |
| Pat Bryant | Denver Broncos | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.71 | +5.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| Evan Engram | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 22.5 | 1.86 | +4.9% | 43 | WIN |
| Xavier Worthy | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 36.5 | 1.88 | +4.6% | 18 | WIN |
| Tyquan Thornton | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.17 | +4.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Noah Gray | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | over | 10.5 | 1.87 | +3.5% | 5 | LOSS |
| Evan Engram | Denver Broncos | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 1.70 | +3.1% | 4 | WIN |
| Travis Kelce | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.64 | +1.8% | 3 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Kansas City Chiefs or Denver Broncosthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Sep 28, 2026 | Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos | 46 | 56.5% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins | 41 | 39.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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