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MLB · Thu, Jun 4, 2026
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Final score: Baltimore Orioles 8 · 2 Boston Red Sox. 17 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 10.5 | 1.86 | +10.9% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.76 | +23.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Marcelo Mayer | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.53 | +17.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.53 | +17.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Carlos Narvaez | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.36 | +15.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Adley Rutschman | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.37 | +14.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Taylor Ward | Baltimore Orioles | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.72 | +10.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.44 | +10.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Jarren Duran | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.41 | +10.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.42 | +9.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Taylor Ward | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.46 | +7.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Andruw Monasterio | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.53 | +5.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| Brayan Bello | Boston Red Sox | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.63 | +5.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.52 | +3.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Marcelo Mayer | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.37 | +2.3% | n/a | PUSH |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.42 | +1.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Adley Rutschman | Baltimore Orioles | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.04 | +1.2% | 1 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Boston Red Sox or Baltimore Orioles that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Sep 30, 2026 | Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees | 32 | 28.1% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees | 23 | 52.2% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 19 | 21.1% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 10 | 40.0% | View → |
| Tue, Sep 22, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 25 | 24.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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