Private North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.orgPrivate North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
MLB · Thu, Sep 3, 2026
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Final score: Boston Red Sox 6 · 5 Baltimore Orioles. 8 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 8.5 | 1.85 | +3.1% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.16 | +17.8% | 4 | WIN |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.17 | +14.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.45 | +14.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.23 | +14.4% | 7 | WIN |
| Carlos Narvaez | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.74 | +8.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.00 | +2.9% | n/a | PUSH |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.43 | +0.1% | n/a | PUSH |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Baltimore Orioles or Boston Red Soxthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees | 23 | 52.2% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 19 | 21.1% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 10 | 40.0% | View → |
| Tue, Sep 22, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 25 | 24.0% | View → |
| Mon, Sep 21, 2026 | Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles | 8 | 37.5% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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